Motivation

For meeting the targets of the Paris Agreement, a rapid and far-reaching phase-out of fossil fuels is required. Against this background, Austria aims at covering 100% of its electricity demand from renewable energy sources by 2030 by increasing electricity generation from renewables by 27 TWh compared to 2020. Due to a continued electrification in all areas after 2030, a further expansion of renewable electricity will be required. High electricity prices in the context of the current crisis, a consequence of increased gas prices following the war in Ukraine, and concerns regarding energy security have amplified calls for a further acceleration of the transition towards renewable electricity.

The contribution of households as prosumers will be of crucial importance in the energy transition. The share of Austrian households owning a PV system used to be very small, but is expected to rise, driven by both changes in the support scheme as well as higher electricity prices. The purchase of a PV system is a long-term remedy against electricity price increases. Nevertheless, not all households can equally benefit from this technology: On the one hand, the investment in PV systems entails significant upfront costs that constitute a barrier for low-income households; on the other hand, legal constraints related to co-ownership of multi-family dwellings or rented dwellings also impede the adoption of residential PV systems. For a socially inclusive energy transition, it must therefore also be ensured that all households have the opportunity and incentive to participate in prosumer activities.

The proposed project FutuRes-PV aims for deriving policy recommendations how to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of PV support in Austria, allowing for a socially inclusive uptake of PV systems at household level. It therefore investigates the impact of increasing household PV electricity generation in Austria until 2040, analysing different policy scenarios regarding their impact on the development of prosumer activities related to PV systems ('prosumer scenarios'). For this purpose, the household module of the macro-economic model DYNK will be adapted and linked to the results of a newly developed technology diffusion model that simulates the adoption of PV systems by different household groups. The technology diffusion model will draw from insights from a choice experiment on PV investments of Austrian households conducted within FutuRes-PV. The choice experiment will inform about the most relevant factors for the households' (non-)investment in PV systems. The model simulations will deliver insights into the effects of different policy approaches on different household groups concerning the investment in PV systems (with and without batteries) as well as in terms of their income and consumption possibilities and inform on macroeconomic effects and the impact on CO₂ emissions. Complemented by a literature survey and stakeholder dialogue, the choice experiment and the model simulations will provide a basis for the development of policy recommendations on how the efficiency and effectiveness of PV support policies can be improved and non-financial barriers for residential PV adoption can be overcome.